THE PAPER IS MAINLY CONCERNED WITH THE USEFULNESS OF EX POST OR 'LOSS ACCOUNTING' ESTIMATES OF ACCIDENT COSTS TO SOCIETY, ESPECIALLY THE 'VALUE OF LIFE' COMPONENT, AS PARAMETERS IN ACCIDENT EVALUATION AND TRANSPORT PLANNING EVALUATION TECHNIQUES. A SET OF ESTIMATED ROAD ACCIDENT COSTS FOR AUSTRALIA IN 1978 IS OUTLINED, AND THE ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY AND SOCIAL COST FRAMEWORK ARE REVIEWED. THE BASIS OF VALUATION OF FATALITY COSTS IS EXAMINED, NOTABLY THE FOREGONE INCOME APPROACH. PROBLEMS CONSIDERED INCLUDE THOSE ARISING FROM THE CONCEPT OF INCOME CHOSEN (NET OR GROSS, ETC); THE TREATMENT OF THOSE NOT EARNING (EG HOUSEWIVES), THE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS OF THE AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE GROUP UNDER STUDY, AND ALSO THE ROLE OF THE DISCOUNT RATE. DATA SHORTCOMINGS ASSOCIATED WITH VEHICLE DAMAGE ESTIMATES ARE DISCUSSED. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE SKEWED DISTRIBUTIONS OF ACCIDENT COSTS IS INDICATED, AND A METHOD IS PROPOSED TO ALLOW ESTIMATION OF THESE COSTS BY INJURY SEVERITY LEVEL FOR MEDICAL AND VEHICLE DAMAGE COSTS. FINALLY, THE RELEVANCE TO THESE ACCIDENT COST STUDIES OF THE RECENT DEBATE ON THE ECONOMICS OF THE VALUE OF LIFE IS INVESTIGATED, IN WHICH THE EX ANTE APPROACH, OR MEASURE OF WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR REDUCTIONS IN RISK OF DEATH, IS RECOGNISED AS THE CORRECT VALUATION CONCEPT. RECENT EMPIRICAL STUDIES USING THIS CONCEPT APPEAR TO PRODUCE PLAUSIBLE RESULTS, AND A CONNECTION BETWEEN WILLINGNESS TO PAY VALUATIONS OF LIFE AND THE FOREGONE INCOME METHOD IS ALSO SUGGESTED (A). THE NUMBER OF THE COVERING ABSTRACT OF THE CONFERENCE IS IRRD NO 255423.
Abstract