The effect of the economy as reflected by employment and unemployment rates on motor vehicle fatalities, suicides, and homicides is examined using several national databases. First, regression models are fit to these fatality data - overall as well as for a variety ofage-race-gender subgroups. Then time series models - autoregressiveintegrated moving average (ARIMA) and structural time series analysis - were fit to the data, both with and without the economic inidcators, to examine the relative ability of the models to forecast subsequent fatalities. No evidence was found using any of the modeling techniques that knowledge of yearly values of rates of employment, unemployment, and nonlabor force leads to improved forecasts of the level of motor vehicle fatalities, suicides, or homicides in the totalU.S. population or within various subpopulations of interest. (A) This paper was published in a special edition of Accident Analysis and Prevention entitled 'Theoretical models for traffic safety' and for the covering abstract see IRRD 846002.
Abstract