This paper attempts to quantify the effects of airline deregulation in the United States on intercity automobile travel and consequently on the number of highway fatalities. A demand model is constructed for auto travel, which includes variables representing the priceand availability of air service. A reduced form model of the airline market is then estimated. Finding that deregulation has decreased airfares and increased flights, it is estimated that auto travel hasbeen reduced by 2.2% per year on average. Given assumptions on the characteristics of drivers switching modes and the types of roads they drove on, the number of automobile fatalities averted since 1978 is estimated to be in the range 200-300 per year. (A) This paper waspublished in a special issue of Accident Analysis and Prevention entitled 'Theoretical models for traffic safety' and for the covering abstract see IRRD 846002.
Abstract