This paper describes General Motors studies of thirty years ago, the conclusions of which appear to still be appropriate today. The paper further relates the conclusion of these studies to the design and construction of electric and hybrid electric vehicles since that time, at present and in the future. That conclusion was (and still is) that electric automobiles cannot be consumer competitive practically, socially, or economically unless something changes, such as the available technology, or the consumers expectations, or the economic environment. The truth of the matter is that given any electric vehicle design, styling, structure and any set of amenities, substituting an equivalent performing internal combustion equivalent performing internal combustion engine/transmission, with appropriate environmental modifications, the results will be a more competitive and marketable product than any electric or hybrid electric combination foreseeable in the past or present. The conclusion of the paper is that, it will not be possible for at least twenty years after the decision is made, and until some 20 billion American dollars in resources are available, to design an electrochemical engine to power a consumer competitive automobile that people would buy. Even so, the risk of failure is high and the cost estimates are optimistic. (A)
Abstract