The exhaust gas legislation for motor vehicles was continuously tightened over the last 25 years. The average age of the passenger cars increases continuously. In the year 2000, the average age was 6.9 years, in 2011 8.3 years and in 2016 9.2 years. This trend has also led to a population increase in vehicles older than 30 years. For that reason the question arises which contribution can be expected to the overall emissions of road traffic in Germany from cars older than 30 years. Based on two possible scenarios for the future vehicle fleet older than 30 years and in combination with estimated operational behavior (mileage), the emissions contribution of these vehicles was calculated and modeled up to the year 2030. In addition, values for a larger venue of such vehicles were derived (Classic Car Meeting). Within the scope of the project the regulated exhaust gas components NOX (nitrogen oxides), HC (hydrocarbons), CO (carbon monoxide) and PM (particulate matter) were considered. As a starting point for 2016, 712,000 relevant vehicles with an assumed annual mileage of 1370 km were set for the scenarios. As result it can be concluded that the emission contribution of the vehicles older than 30 years, including the later reference years with a relatively high contingent of vehicles, represents only a single percentage share per exhaust gas component in total. However, in the case of an isolated consideration of the rural driving pattern the percentage contribution can also increase. On the days of the computed classic car meeting the contribution of those cars can significantly add to the emissions based on the average annual daily values. However, also here only little contribution in the lower single-digit percentage range can be reported. (Author/publisher)
Abstract