The development of traffic safety and its general conditions up to the year 2015/2020. The objective of this research project was to predict the number of accidents and casualties in Germany in the years 2015 and 2020. Therefore a new model had to be developed, allowing a differentiation of the accidents and casualties in terms of traffic mode, age and severity. The model should be able to predict future traffic safety according to causeeffect relationships and, thereby, be more flexible than conventional models, solely based on the extrapolation of the number of accidents and casualties. For the first time a forecast of future traffic safety has been made, based on the prediction of accident risks of relevant accident constellations. These were determined separately for motorways, rural and urban roads. Furthermore, the risks of accidents and injuries were subdivided for each mode of traffic and age of road user. Changes in the general conditions of traffic safety are considered with regard to/in terms of the occurrence as well as the severity of accidents. This leads to the possibility of quantifying the impact of demographic shifts and changes in the accessibility of traffic modes. At the present stage of development the model allows an estimation of the effects of several determining factors on traffic safety. For the sake of logical and hierarchical structure, the prediction model is designed in modules. The individual modules are run through sequentially. Each of them is self-contained and follows separate calculation rules. The theoretical model was translated into a tool consisting of linked Excel-files. Specific procedures were realised as VBA-based macros. It was ensured that the single steps of the calculation are separated clearly and allow maximal variability. This includes the possibility of changing the input data as well as choosing the type of trends. The forecast, based on the model developed and a prognosis of future traffic conditions in Germany, shows a considerable decrease in accidents and casualties in Germany compared to 2006. The reduction of accidents with injuries amounts to 30 % in 2020, the decline in casualties as such lies at about 13 %. The fatalities decrease from 5,100 (2006) to 2,700 (2020). In the same period the decrease of severely injured people per year amounts to 33,000 (2006: 74,500). The annual number of slight injuries decreases by 6 % and leads to an estimated number of 326,000 people in the year 2020. The decrease of total numbers of casualties between 2015 and 2020 is similar to the decline estimated for the period from 2006 to 2015 (58,000 compared to 55,000 casualties). Hence about half of the total decrease of casualties between 2006 and 2020 is allotted to the last five years of the overall period of 15 years. In the present publication reference is repeatedly made to the detailed methodological final report of the project group. This is available at the Federal Higway Research Institute an can bei viewed there. (Author/publisher)
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