This paper describes a study into the effect on economic growth of reducing the environmental impact of freight transport. A `Basic Scenario 2015' is described which extrapolates the trends of 1990. The environmental effects are described and the need for a New Course Scenario identified. The New Course Scenario utilises technological improvements to vehicles, the optimisation of logistics and a shift to environmentally sound modes of transport. The environmental effects of the two scenarios are compared with sustainability targets . The New Course Scenario reaches NOx targets but just fails CO2 emission and energy consumption targets. The effects on economic development of the two scenarios are similar. Possibilities beyond the Year 2015 are discussed.
Abstract