Transport at the turn of the century displays several unsustainable trends. Continued growth in the number of motorised vehicles and their use places major burdens on the availability of natural resources, notably oil. Emissions from the burning of motor vehicle fuel contribute to global and local damage to ecosystems and human health. Other concerns related to the use of motorised transport include traffic accidents, high noise levels that harm human health, and land use patterns that interfere with habitat, migration patterns, and ecosystem integrity. The OECD’s project on Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) was undertaken to help respond to these trends and make transport sustainable. Nine countries contributed to six case studies. EST was defined, envisioned, and then quantified in terms of internationally agreed standards for ecosystem and human health. Six EST criteria - for noise, land use, and emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matter - were set for the year 2030 in relation to conditions in 1990. The teams developed EST scenarios consistent with the criteria and also ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU) projections for 2030. Both the BAU and EST scenarios were characterised by high levels of access to people, places, goods and services in comparison to 1990. In the case of the EST scenario, however, providing for this high level of access was accomplished with stabilised overall travel volume, especially in regards to passenger transport. The EST scenarios involved more use of public and non-motorised forms of transport and new mobility services and less travel by cars and aircraft for passenger transport. For freight transport, the EST scenarios indicate improved supply chain management and more movement of freight by rail than by road. The EST scenarios were assessed in relation to the BAU projections to determine how the EST criteria could be achieved. The assessment suggested that about half of the reduction would result from improvements in technology and half would result from changes in transport activity. Working back from the EST objectives (backcasting), the project teams developed packages of policy instruments considered capable of securing the attainment of EST. The instrument packages differed greatly among the teams, suggesting that there are many potential routes to EST. Work was also undertaken to identify some of the economic and social implications of moving towards EST rather than continuing with ‘business-as-usual’. The overall impacts of moving towards EST would appear to be positive: economies would remain robust, society’s costs would be lower, and there could be social advantages. EST is an appealing, achievable objective that will require a broad-based and concerted commitment. Reaching EST will ensure that the transport sector plays its role in the quest for sustainable development. The most important challenges for the attainment of EST concern well-tuned phasing of implementation strategies and their component policies and instruments as well as the involvement of stake-holders from government, industry, non-governmental organisations and the public. Another important challenge for achieving EST concerns tailoring the project findings to various, regional situations and focusing on high growth sectors, such as freight, aviation and leisure traffic. Finally, an objectives-based approach, as for the EST project, serves as a promising model for other sectors. (A)
Abstract