The study compares the risk of driver fatalities in collisions between two cars, to estimate the effects of the crash-phase Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards. To avoid the use of the accident involvement figures which may be inaccurate, only collisions between two cars in which exactly one driver was killed were studied. The influences of the factors, collision type, vehicle weight, and driver age and sex were modelled by low-order polynomials. To estimate the impact of the crash-phase Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, remaining differences between cars of differing model years were compared. The comparisons suggested differences between the pre-1968 and post-1967 model years only, and no systematic differences within these groups. The result we have most confidence in is that in front-front collisions the fatality risk in post-1967 cars is 22 percent lower than in the earlier model years. We are less certain of the result for front-side impacts where the fatality risk for the driver of the striking car appears to be reduced 30 to 38 percent, and for the driver of the struck car, 11 to 12 percent. Improvements of the estimates through refinement of the model and additional data appear possible.
Abstract