This work aims at evaluating the impact of the Lille-Metropole Urban Community urban mobility plan on traffic, atmospheric pollutant concentrations and mortality, by comparing the results expected from the orientations decided by 2015 (UMP scenario) with those observed in 1998 and a trend scenario. This was achieved by the implementation of a complex modelling chain linking a traffic model, EMME2, whose results are traffic assignments on over 7,000 sections representing over 2,500 kilometres of roads, breaking down HT, LUV, HGV, Bus and Car and 2 wheeled vehicles over 24 hours of an annual average day, by taking into account cold-start trips; an emission model, derived from COPERT III, that calculates the emissions of this traffic for the whole year, to which were added the emissions of other SNAP sources in the conurbation of Lille, a dispersion model known as Polair3D, a complete chemical-transport model and model of the impact on mortality, based on the recommendations of WHO Europe and using in particular the risk-exposure relations produced in the framework of the PSAS9 programme of the Health Monitoring Institute. The whole chain was successfully validated against the concentrations data provided by the local air pollution measurement network. The impact of the UMP on the scenarios of 2015, whose objectives and resources are very ambitious, is significant on traffic and its emissions. On the contrary, the specific impact of the UMP on NO2, ozone and particulate matter concentrations is very low. Therefore, the health impact of the UMP on these three is almost nil (A). For the covering abstract of the conference see ITRD E212343.
Abstract