It is important to be able to predict the amount of traffic that will be generated by new land use developments in order to anticipate impacts on the overall transportation system, and to plan for internal circulation and parking needs at a site. Many factors can affect the amount of traffic generated at a particular site, including the type of land use, its size, local demographics and transport patterns, convenience and price of parking, and other factors. This paper reviews current methods used in estimating generated traffic caused by new developments such as housing, shopping centres, conventional centres, hospitals, etc. It describes three case studies from Bangkok, Thailand which illustrate conventional assumptions and methods. Several shortcomings of current practices are identified and possible improvements are proposed to more accurately predict the amount of traffic generated by new developments. The assumptions used to in standard trip and parking generation models are not always appropriate for application in a particular project. Models and assumptions from developed countries are not appropriate for use in developing countries where demographic, economic, and transportation conditions are often quite different. This paper suggests that several additional factors that should be considered to improve the accuracy of such models, particularly in developing countries. It also suggests additional research needed for more accurate traffic generation modelling. Though, based on experience in Bangkok, they reflect general principles that should be considered by traffic planners in any location. (A)
Abstract