The objectives of COST 329 are described. They include: the monitoring of traffic and traffic safety trends; the determination of which safety developments are to be expected from changes in influential factors such as changing traffic volume and demographic and economic trends; the comparison of international safety developments; and forecasting of future levels of safety. Difficulties with data availability and comparability are discussed. Details of traffic volume with respect to road type, vehicle type and distance travelled by mode are generally difficult to obtain. The use of aggregate and disaggregate models is discussed. Time series modelling applications are considered. The recomendations are the development of a common system for regular monitoring of traffic and safety which could be carried out in all European countries, that it should be normal practice to assess the effectiveness of major road safety measures, that time-series models should be developed more broadly on a European scale for moniting / long-term prediction, that systems for collecting accident exposure data be implemented in all countries, that the full range of casualty severity be included in international comparisons, and finally that the aquired knowledge and practical experience concerning the application of time-series analysis to traffic safety be disseminated not only to scientific researchers but also to traffic safety experts, safety managers and policy makers.
Abstract