A new evacuation network model that specifically deals with the dynamic interaction between hazard, authority and evacuees is presented. More specific, the evacuees decide on their departure time, destination and route inwhich they act upon the (perceived) hazard conditions and the informationand evacuation instructions (departure time window, evacuation route(s) and destination(s)) given by the authority. At the same time, the spatiotemporal effects of the hazard may cause road sections to become limited accessible. The analytical macroscopic evacuation model enables forecasting oftraffic flow operations on a road network in case of an evacuation in a dynamic way, incorporating the spatiotemporal effect of the hazard. The newly proposed model is innovative as it combines a voluntary evacuation (with possible pre-trip and en-route decisions) and a mandatory evacuation (with prescribed routes and departure times) within one single generic model framework. The magnitude with which the evacuation instructions influence the evacuee's decisions depends on the type of instructions (recommendations or binding orders) and the evacuee's willingness to adjust his or her behaviour in case the given instructions conflict with its personal preferences. This way we can model varying levels of compliance, such that evacuation instructions can be accepted fully, accepted partly, or rejected. In doing so, the model allows assessment of a wide range of evacuation schemes and hazard types, increasing the application domain. Moreover, by introducing a dynamic road infrastructure, in which road characteristics such ascapacity and flow direction can be time-varying due to the hazard's progress in space and time (e.g., blocked links due to flooding) and prevailingtraffic regulations and control measures (e.g. contra flow to increase outbound capacity), the model can capture important changes in the infrastructure over time, making it very realistic. As a result, the model can pragmatically facilitate evaluation of alternative evacuation schemes in orderto minimize casualties, costs of evacuation, time needed for complete evacuation, or any such criteria. In doing so, the evacuation model has the potential to function as a decision support system for regional authoritiesand emergency services supervising an evacuation or assigned to constructing an evacuation scheme for planning purposes. The paper describes the successful application of the model to a case describing the evacuation of the Walcheren-Zuid Beveland area, the Netherlands. For the covering abstract see ITRD E145999
Abstract