In 2013, the Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI) evaluated changes in teenage driver exposure for calendar years 2006—12 (HLDI, 2013). The analysis indicated that by 2012, national teen and prime-age (35-54) driver exposure had declined compared with 2006 levels, with teenage driver exposure declining more than prime-age driver exposure. This was consistent with media reports and studies indicating that the number of teens getting licensed had declined. The cause of this decline, however, was unclear. Some felt this was due to a shift in culture, with teenagers prioritizing social media ahead of driving. Others believed that economic factors played a more important role. Using the ratio of teen exposure to prime-age exposure as the primary metric, a state level analysis was performed investigating the relationship of the teen-to-prime-age exposure ratio with changes in graduated driver licensing laws, census population estimates, and unemployment rates. The study found that a state’s teen-to-prime-age exposure ratio was highly correlated with intermediate driver licensing age requirements, the ratio of teen and prime-age census population estimates, and the spread between teen and prime-age unemployment rates. Changes in the unemployment spread were found to be associated with 79 percent of the overall decline in the teento-prime-age exposure ratio. This would indicate that economic factors have contributed to the decline in the level of insured teens. This analysis updates the previous study to include calendar years 2013 and 2014. Nationally, teen exposure increased in both years while prime-age exposure continued to decline slightly, resulting in an increase of 6 percent to the teen-to-prime-age exposure ratio between 2012 and 2014. At the same time, the unemployment rate for both teenagers and prime-age adults declined, with the teen unemployment rate declining faster than that of prime-age adults. Consequently, as the unemployment rate spread between teen and prime-age drivers declined, the teen-to-prime-age exposure ratio rose. Changes in the unemployment spread were estimated to be associated with 67 percent of the overall increase in the teen-to-prime-age exposure ratio between 2012 and 2014. This is consistent with the hypothesis of the prior study that economic factors played an important role in the decline in teen exposure and indicates that teens’ exposure will increase as their economic situation improves. (Author/publisher)
Abstract