This study sets out to address a number of objectives related to the use of ABS (Anti-lock Braking Systems) technology as a safety feature on LC category motorcycles with an engine capacity greater then 125cc. In particular, it examined the effectiveness of ABS in reducing motorcycle crashes and injuries to motorcyclists, both in Australia and within an international context, and the relevance and effectiveness of motorcycle ABS to specific crash types. In addition, the project sought to identify future trends of motorcycle and ABS fitment growth and the likely benefits in terms of future injury savings and what the economic cost of the technology is expected to be. While it was hoped that the analysis would also include the benefits of CBS (Combined Braking Systems), limited fitment of this technology in the vehicle fleet precluded this task. The project involved a statistical analysis of national road crash data as well as trend data in vehicle sales and ABS fitment for motorcycles. The Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) was used to identify LC motorcycles with the technology fitted and this proved to be somewhat challenging, given the different forms of the recording of VIN adopted in this country. Statistical modelling was also undertaken for predicting future trends based on past and current figures, requiring a number of assumptions. It was assumed that ABS would be effective for various crash configurations which excluded head-on, overtaking, U-turning, entering and leaving a parking place, collision with a fixed object and cutting in collisions. These crashes were labelled as “non-sensitive” crashes. All other crash types were considered to be sensitive crashes where ABS was expected to be of benefit. The effectiveness analysis involved Induced Exposure measures to help minimise the effects of confounding factors. The overall analysis found that ABS technology on LC>125 motorcycles (no scooters) resulted in a 33% reduction in all injury crash severities and a 39% reduction in severe injury crashes for sensitive crashes. This translates to a 31% benefits across all motorcycle crashes in Australia. For the few cases where ABS and CBS were identified together, the effectiveness rose slightly to 44%1. The effectiveness was further shown to vary depending on single or multi-vehicle crashes, at intersections, and whether the road was wet or not. These findings were roughly equivalent with other published international results. There were differences in terms of crash type between motorcycles fitted with ABS or not. Those with ABS had slightly fewer intersection crashes and crashes on curves but slightly more rear-end crashes. These findings were not particularly strong and probably influenced by the selection of what was considered to be an ABS sensitive crash type. Other findings showed some differences between motorcycles with and without ABS by the type of LC motorcycle (sport touring and touring in particular), the age group of the rider, and the speed zone where the crash occurred. It is likely, however, that some of these findings may be subject to other rider influences, such as personality and motivation of the rider. There were no differences between these two groups in terms of helmet use. It was not possible to break these figures down by sealed and unsealed roads as these categories were not consistent across these databases. The project also called for identifying and predicting the future fleet size of ABS and likely future trends in marketing and ABS fitment rates in Australia. Using registration figures of LC motorcycles dating back to 1998, it was possible to predict the future trend of registrations for the next 10 years. The study team felt that beyond that, it was not really possible as there are likely to be major changes in motorcycle types, consumer interest (especially if ABS fitment becomes mandatory) and general shifts in the whole vehicle industry. The predicted growth trend for the number of Australian registered motorcycles was a general increase of around 4.7% annually (Australian Bureau of Statistics) of which the proportion of LC>125cc motorcycles was around 62%. In 2014 the five year average annual growth in new LC>125cc vehicles with ABS was 17%. As the proportion of new LC motorcycles with ABS in 2015 is still quite a modest proportion of new vehicle sales (approximately 20%), all-age vehicle fleet fitment is still not likely to rise above 20% by 2025 according to modelled projections of current new-vehicle fitment rates. This might suggest the need for intervention to help accelerate these trends. Given the difficulty experienced in VIN identification in most Australian states, the analysis necessitated the use of the more reliable figures of ABS fitment in Victoria for predicting the benefits in all Australian states and territories. Trends targeted what the benefits would be if the current increase in ABS fitment was to occur annually, taking into account predicted increases of LC motorcycles over the last 10 years, fitment rates of ABS, and likely crashes and injury savings up until 2025. The analysis revealed that if increases in ABS fitment trends continue at current rates, it is expected that there would be a net reduction of 643 injury crashes between now and the year 2025 with expected injury savings of 22 fatalities, 345 serious injuries and 367 minor injuries. These savings could be accelerated by introducing legislation for mandatory fitment of ABS in all new LC>125cc motorcycles. Depending on when such legislation could be introduced, it could lead to an additional 60% reduction over current predicted trends in injury crashes and associated fatalities, and in serious and minor injuries. As the average life of an LC motorcycle is currently around 22 years, these savings would be considerably greater beyond 2025, assuming there are no major changes in vehicle registration patterns and consumer demand. Achieving these savings will come at a cost of ensuring all motorcycles LC>125cc are produced with antilock brakes as standard equipment. The European parliament mandated compulsory fitment of ABS on motorcycles 125cc and above by 2016. In their cost-benefit-analysis, they used a figure of 500 euros per motorcycle, based on manufacturer’s costs. This has been disputed by others who argued that suppliers’ figures (based on what the cost to manufacturers would actually be by suppliers) of 150 euro was more realistic. It seems reasonable, therefore, to assume that the actual cost to OEMs for fitment of ABS technology on all LC>125cc motorcycles would be 150 euros (approx. A$220). Studies of this kind are typically limited in a number of ways. The lack of any consistent available data across the states (especially VIN number irregularities) led to assumptions of what the current situation is regarding motorcycle crashes and ABS fitment in Australia. These really need to be validated if possible in future analyses. In addition, in estimating future trends, it was necessary to make the assumption that the LC motorcycle environment in future will follow current patterns. This is quite a broad assumption as demand for new motorcycles with ABS is quite unknown. For instance, if legislation were to be introduced mandating ABS, this could possibly lead to significant changes in supply and demand. The findings of the effectiveness of ABS in preventing crashes and injuries identified substantial benefits for LC>125cc motorcyclists from fitment of this technology to their machines. The analysis found that ABS resulted in a 33% reduction of all injuries in sensitive crash types and a 39% reduction in severe injuries in these crashes. These findings were in line with other published international results. In association with these savings, there are expected to be marked savings in fewer fatalities as well as severe and minor injuries. These savings would be enhanced by efforts to increase the fitment rate of ABS on all new LC motorcycles over the coming years. (Author/publisher)
Abstract