This report gives an exploration of the possible development of Automated Vehicle Guidance (AVG) systems. The approach uses a framework for studying the development of AVG systems in relation with developments of the overall transportation system. The study uses a scenario approach, assuming two sets of developments of the transportation system and its environment. In one scenario there is strong government regulation, while in the other scenario market regulation was assumed. Both scenarios assumed economic maximization as a dominant societal factor. The scenarios were quantified and evaluated with respect to key mobility figures. This resulted in a problem statement which was taken as the starting point for a workshop in which a different path for each scenario was developed. Subsequently, the scenarios were re-evaluated with the AVG application. The study shows that the approach taken is feasible and leads to a better understanding of the possible AVG development under different conditions. The approach was illustrated by modelling AVG primarily as an improvement of the free flow speed and road capacity. This resulted in a slight increase in car traffic volumes combined with an increase in travel speed. It was also concluded that AVG needs to be combined with other measures and developments in the transportation system in order to satisfactorily address the problem statements in each scenario. (A)
Abstract