There is widespread concern about the increasing price of petrol and how it is affecting the economy. Much media interest has focused on how increasing fuel prices have acted to increase public transport demand although these reports are not based on any robust analysis. This paper undertakes a statistical analysis of the relationship between recent fuel price changes and increases in public transport demand through an analysis of data collected for the Melbourne public transport system. It starts with a review of evidence on impacts through a review of international studies in this area and a compilation on measures of cross elasticity of demand i.e. the demand for public transport as affected by the price of fuel for auto travel. Section 3 describes the context for the study, the public transport system and market in Melbourne, Australia. Section 4 outlines the methodology for the analysis of the Melbourne data and section 5 describes the main findings of this analysis. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings and some suggestions for further research. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E214666.
Abstract