"Accident explanation models" is the general heading for a number of road safety projects commissioned by the analysis section of the National Road Office during the latter part of the 80s and early 90s. The overall purpose has been to account for changes in road safety and to identify factors that may or will influence road safety in the future. The report summarises the results of the studies in regard to various factors and their influence on road safety. In certain cases, results from other studies are also reported. The aim has been to provide as complete and simple a picture as possible of how the national road safety situation is influenced by determinative factors concerning accidents and injuries. Development in road safety can be described as a consequence of at least five factors: (1) Traffic development and vehicle and road user composition; (2) Changes in risks and traffic as a result of improved road standards; (3) Changes in risks as a result of changes in speed; (4) Changes in risk as a result of the introduction of general road safety measures; and (5) Changes in risks as a result of changes in conformity to applicable regulations. The evident shortcomings resulting from the above are that no continuous evaluation is made each year in regard to the effect of road standard improvements on road safety and that there is no continuous follow-up of conformity to many traffic regulations which are important for road safety. Information on speed development could also be considerably improved. At the same time, it is necessary to eliminate any doubts concerning the usability of road accident statistics in evaluating the effect of comprehensive road safety measures. (A)
Abstract