Abstract
This article outlines a procedure to make simultaneous conditional forecasts of car holding, scrappage and new car purchase. The model is adapted to Norwegian time series data, it is autoregressive, and other causal factors than income are introduced through their influence on threshold income for car holding. Using the car holding forecasts as a basis, scrappage and new car purchase are predicted by assuming constant scrappage rates and proportions of unregistered cars for each age class.(Author/publisher).