Forecasting container and freight ship movements on international routes to and from Australia.

Author(s)
Hamal, K.
Year
Abstract

International shipping has remained the main mode of transporting exports and imports from and to Australia. However, following the September 11 terrorist act in the USA and the Iraq war, there are security concerns in relation to the movement of containers and ships on international routes to and from Australia. This paper presents forecasts of container and ship movements on international routes to and from Australia over the next ten years and the likely impact of large containers and ships upon container and ship movements. Econometric models have been used to forecast the number of container and ship movements. The models are specified with exports and imports as the dependent variables and population, real income, exchange rates and export and import prices as explanatory variables. The empirical results suggest that the number of containers and ships on international routes to and from Australia will increase significantly over the next ten years, largely driven by positive economic outlook for Australia and its major trading partners. (Author/publisher) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E211825.

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Publication

Library number
C 34161 (In: C 34141 CD-ROM) /72 /71 / ITRD E211845
Source

In: ATRF 04: papers of the 27th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Volume 27, University of South Australia, Transport Systems Centre, 29 September-1 October 2004, 21 p., ref.

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