This synthesis report identifies methods of freight and commercial vehicle forecasting currently in professional practice, along with promising methods emerging from ongoing research. The primary focus is on metropolitan-level forecasting, although some consideration is given to statewide freight models. The report finds that metropolitan freight and commercial vehicle forecasting is being performed through the use of traditional four-step models, which have inherent limitations for this purpose. A critical gap continues to be the inability to collect data from shippers or carriers that are reluctant to divulge confidential business information. Information to perform the synthesis was gathered by literature review, including advanced international practice. In addition, a survey and interviews were conducted of nine selected North American metropolitan planning organizations to ascertain their experience in the development and application of freight and commercial forecasting tools. (Author/publisher)
Abstract