The travel demand forecasting procedures described in this paper have been developed by the Traffic and Revenue Consultants (TRC) to Eurotunnel (of which Wilbur Smith Associates form a part). The first part of the paper analyses the current markets for cross-Channel transport by all modes for both passengers and freight. The likely growth in future global demand, as determined mainly by macroeconomic variables is then discussed. Major changes in future networks, costs/fares, travel time, frequencies and the regulatory environment in the UK and on the Continent are identified, including a description of services to be provided by Eurotunnel. Likely future cross-Channel market shares are then presented, including the Tunnel's share of passenger and freight traffic (from published sources). Until recently the TRC forecasts were predominantly of a medium/long-term nature and based on revealed preference data. However, as the date of Tunnel opening fast approaches and Eurotunnel is transformed into an operating company, the need was seen for short-term forecasts relating to the early years of Tunnel operations based on market surveys of potential user response to the Tunnel. For 1992 and 1993 the work of the TRC emphasised: updating of passenger and freight origin/destination information; refinement by market segment, seasonal variation of traffic, differential tariff structure scenarios; competitive responses by ferries, airlines, etc; stated preference research of potential Tunnel users; discrete choice analysis techniques; traffic demand profile (seasonal, daily and hourly variation by vehicle type); and build-up of demand and supply during early years. The second part of the paper outlines the short-term forecasting methodology adopted. Particular reference is made to issues relating to potential passenger diversion to the Tunnel system. The implications of the short-term passenger forecasting framework are discussed. (A)
Abstract