In the last few years many empirical studies have been made using the technique of gravity model for predicting urban and intercity traffic volumes. One of the shortcomings of this technique is that it requires that both the trips generated and attracted by each city be obtained from origin-destination survey data. While accumulation of such data is feasible and perhaps necessary for urban studies, it becomes impractical for intercity traffic. Especially if future projections are to be made. This study uses the analytical technique of intervening opportunities model in predicting intercity traffic volumes in ontario. The theory behind this model is that the probability of a trip originating in one zone and finding a destination in another zone is proportional to the number of possible destinations in the other zone, and inversely related to the number of possible destinations lying closer to the zone than the zone in question. The data used in the analysis were extracted from the surveys conducted by the ontario department of highways, in the last five years. Only those cities which have a population of 10,000 and over and are located in southwestern and eastern ontario were used in traffic prediction. The model developed gave the coefficient of determination 74 which meant that 74 percent of the total variance in the dependent variable (i. E., trips between cities) was associated with variation in the population of the cities and the intervening opportunities between cities. The accuracy with which this model simulated intercity traffic was considered sufficiently valid to make projections for 1986.
Abstract