The development in the field of self-driving vehicles is quick and many vehicle manufacturers (GM, Ford, Toyota, BMW, Audi, VW and others) say they will launch a fully self-driving vehicle on the market around 2020. Although technology development will move quickly in the coming years, big questions remain regarding; how self-driving vehicles will be received by society, where they will be allowed, if they will be used primarily as private or shared vehicles, how they will handle traffic safety, privacy and cyber-security issues, and to what extent they will influence accepted commuting time, mode choice and induced travel by car. At the same time, long-term socio-economic effects are not primarily determined by technological advances, but mostly by the role self-driving vehicles will have in our society, that is, their effects on traffic and urban planning in general. Therefore, it is important to sketch possible future scenarios for self-driving vehicles. Based on these scenarios, a discussion can follow on how regulations and policy instruments should be used in order to maximise social benefits of self-driving vehicles. This report describes the work with future scenarios for self-driving vehicles undertaken during the winter of 2016/2017. An analysis group consisting of five people, supported by a passenger transport expert group that met for three full-day workshops, identified both a secure development towards 2030 and two uncertain axes that lead to four possible scenarios for the future with self-driving vehicles in Sweden. With participation of 40 experts from 23 transport organizations, this study is unique compared to previous scenario work concerning the development of self-driving vehicles which have been based either on literature studies or expert workshops with few researchers. The cores of the uncertain axes are: whether people have embraced the sharing economy or not (consumption of services rather than ownership) and the extent to which this is reflected in the mobility solutions that have had an impact whether the ambitious goals that policies and institutions have to change society is also accompanied by new solutions and thinking spirit, or if most work is still done similarly to today’s working progresses (both Swedish and international). Together, the two uncertain axes form four possible scenario outcomes for the situation in Sweden year 2030 that are detailed in this report: 1) Same, same, but different — A scenario where policy and institutions are proactive and innovative, but people have not embraced new shared solutions. 2) Sharing is the new black — A scenario where policy and institutions are proactive and innovative and people have embraced new shared solutions. 3) Follow the path — A business-as-usual scenario where policies and institutions are ambitious but slow and people have not embraced new shared solutions. 4) What you need is what you get — A scenario where policies and institutions are ambitious but slow, but people have embraced new shared solutions. The passenger transport expert group made the judgement that the number of vehicle kilometers in 2030 will be lowest in scenario 2) where an ambitious and proactive urban policy takes a holistic approach to transport and urban planning, and in which a breakthrough has occurred for shared solutions. The proportion of vehicle kilometers made with self-driving vehicles at level 4 or 53 is assumed to be highest in scenario 2) and 4), in which a breakthrough has occurred for shared solutions. In 2050, the passenger transport expert group estimates that self-driving vehicles has had an impact in all four scenarios, but especially in scenario 2) and 4). The freight transport expert group did a more careful assessment and believed in a limited impact of self-driving vehicles in freight transport by 2030 and slightly greater impact by 2050. However, the freight transport expert group note that there are driving forces concerning, in particular, costefficiency that may lead to self-driving vehicles being introduced in freight transport prior to the introduction in person transport. Furthermore, the freight transport expert group consider it easier to transform long-distance freight to self-driving than city-logistics, since city-logistics is performed in a complex urban environment and has to load and unload goods in a large number of places. The scenario work described in this report shows the importance of a proactive transport and urban policy in order to guide the development of self-driving vehicles in an environmentally and socially sustainable direction. In scenario 3) and 4) where policy is slow, the future scenarios show a major risk of increasing traffic congestion and that rural areas, small towns and outer suburbs will fall behind and not get any larger portion of the benefits of self-driving vehicles. (Author/publisher)
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