Opinions vary on the way in which the forward economic effects of new transport infrastructures should be calculated. In a study entitled "Fundamentally Forwards", NEI, University of Groningen (RUG) and TNO Inro have put forward proposals for a new and better research approach method based on extensive evaluation of existing approaches and current research practices. The study is carried out in two ways: from a theoretical angle, and from a practical angle. With the theoretical point of view, a number of traffic and transport models were first analysed and, in doing so, the extent to which this can have direct economic effects was investigated. An inventory was then made of the existing economic models which were evaluated on the basis of suitability as far as estimating the forwards effects of new transport infrastructure is concerned. From the practical angle, the calculation methods currently used in a number of large infrastructural projects were scrutinised. The authors' conclusions and recommendations are based on the findings derived from both facets. It has been concluded that a general spatial balance model is the best kind to adopt when estimating forward economic effects because with such a model a large number of the shortcomings of present methods can be abolished. (A)
Abstract