Future prediction and traffic safety research : paper presented at the National Road Safety Seminar, Wellington, New Zealand, 2-4 November 1992. [In press title: The future of traffic, traffic safety, and traffic safety research]

Author(s)
Evans, L.
Year
Abstract

This article takes a pragmatic look at the business and/or art of prediction in the area of traffic and safety. The author offers the following principles to keep in mind when considering a prediction: (1) Predictions should be embedded in historical perspective; (2) Beware of naive extrapolation; (3) Beware of concealing uncertainty behind a smoke-screen of complexity; and (4) Large feedback mechanisms may invalidate simplistic predictions.

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Publication

Library number
930307 ST [electronic version only]
Source

Transportation Quarterly, Vol. 47 (1993), No. 1 (January), p. 3-18, 16 ref.

Our collection

This publication is one of our other publications, and part of our extensive collection of road safety literature, that also includes the SWOV publications.