Future thinking : exploring future scenarios for climate change and effects on the national highway system.

Author(s)
Houghton, N. & Styles, E.
Year
Abstract

This paper reviews recent work undertaken by ARRB Transport Research in association with CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research and Monash University Centre for Population and Urban Research that examined the long term effects of greenhouse gas emissions and climate change on the National Highway System. The paper examines the interactions between climate change, population distribution patterns, transport demand and the impacts of passenger and freight demand on the life cycle performance of the road asset. Each of these areas involves uncertainty and the paper demonstrates how the application of future thinking techniques, such as scenario construction, enables the transport analyst to navigate uncertain pathways into the future. The paper describes the results of climate change modeling undertaken by CSIRO and the application of climatic variables (in particular, precipitation and temperature) to road pavement deterioration using the ARRB Transport Research Pavement Life Cycle Costing (PLCC) model and HDM-4. (Author/publisher) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E209537. This paper may also be accessed by Internet users at: http://www.btre.gov.au/docs/atrf_02/program.html

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Publication

Library number
C 27771 (In: C 27750 CD-ROM) /10 /15 / ITRD E209558
Source

In: ATRF02 : papers of the 25th Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF), Canberra, 2-4 October, 2002, 16 p., 12 ref.

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This publication is one of our other publications, and part of our extensive collection of road safety literature, that also includes the SWOV publications.