Three years after The Great Belt Link's opening in 1998 there are now sufficient data to evaluate how the link has changed the traffic pattern between East and West Denmark. This paper evaluates how traffic has changed from 1996 (before the link was opened) to 1999 (after the link was opened). The primary objective is to evaluate the real changes. The secondary objective is to evaluate how the traffic forecasts correspond with the real changes and how accurately the traffic model is able to forecast the real changes. The realised total traffic growth has been between 57% and 81% for the Great Belt alone. The new traffic generated between East and West Denmark has been estimated to be 15% to 20% as described in detail below. The traffic forecasts made in 1997 seem to underestimate the growth to some extent. The forecasted traffic is between 82% and 100% of the realised traffic. The underestimation seems to be caused by implicit model parameters, primarily in the prediction of new traffic, rather than by unexpected development in explicit policy parameters. In general the forecasts seem to correspond well to what can be expected with models of complex situations such as that of the Great Belt. A detailed description of the evaluations based on 1996 and 1999 data is given below. The increase in traffic across the Great Belt has continued in 2000. The question is how many years it will take before individual travellers and freight operators will have adapted to the new situation with a road and rail link between East and West Denmark. A more detailed study of regional economic development could be interesting.
Abstract