In the 1990's the "ScenarioExplorer" model was developed for long-term prognoses in the Netherlands. The model assists in the analysis of developments in transport demand and transport supply at the national level. Several organizations have applied the ScenarioExplorer since its development. The ScenarioExplorer's flexible design and many degrees of freedom makes it appropriate for exploration of the effects of societal, economic and technical developments on the demand for transport, and the testing of alternative policies to manage the transport system and demands on it. A coordinated and sustainable transport policy is high on the priority list of Flemish policymakers. In 2001, a new draft transport policy plan for the next few decades was presented to the parliament. In developing this proposed transport policy, it became clear that there is a need for strategic models to support the development of transport policy. Such models are currently not available in Flanders. The Feasibility Study Scenario Explorer for Flanders examined whether an instrument such as the ScenarioExplorer would fulfill the need for transport policy development support in Flanders, and if the development of such an instrument were, as the title suggests, feasible. To answer these questions, Requirements for the model were developed during the course of the project and checked in a workshop with Flemish stakeholders. The study concluded that it is feasible to meet the important requirements of a Scenario Explorer for Flanders. As a result, a proposal was put forward to develop the ScenarioExplorer in two steps. First, a basic version of the ScenarioExplorer would be developed, followed in the second step by supplemental functionality. (A)
Abstract