This paper considers the transport systems inland navigation, rail transport, road haulage and aviation in a long term perspective. Network length as well as inland and international transport are analyzed by means of a logistic model. The historical developments in network length in the Netherlands differ from other countries, because inland navigation has never been exceeded by rail transport. According to logistic logic inland barges, railways and road haulage have already reached their saturation level. The process of competition and substitution between transport systems shows a regular pattern like the Kondratieff wave in economics. Therefore, a modal split policy in favour of environment friendly freight transport should be directed to a new generation of conveyance.
Abstract