This study investigates the suitability of land use variables in predicting the number of child pedestrian accident casualties, which remain a subject of concern in the United Kingdom, despite sustained improvements in road safety over the past decade. The relationship between land use and transport is used to establish a link between land use and child pedestrian travel; trip attractors and generators are used as variables that lead to exposure of the child to high risk environments. Accident data for Newcastle upon Tyne is used and analyzed to reveal trends and patterns of temporal variation of child pedestrian casualty numbers. Land use data is combined with the casualty data using GIS techniques to create eight spatial models, which serve as a base for associating the casualty numbers and land use types. Six regression models are developed on the basis of temporal variation of child pedestrian casualty numbers and trip attractor land use types. The results show that secondary retail and high density residential land use types are associated with all child pedestrian casualties. In addition, educational sites, junction density, primary retail, and low density residential land use types are also associated with child casualties at different time periods of the day (school time and non-school time) and week (week day and weekend) . The study findings are found to concur with the current UK Child Road Safety Policies and can in fact provide some guidance for child road safety audits.
Abstract