With the advent of high speed trains in Japan in 1964, a unique inter-city transport network emerged in which high speed railway and air transport developed simultaneously in Japan, giving rise to modal choice between them on price and speed. The next generation of high speed transport, the Maglev, is on the horizon. In order to capture the full impacts of Maglev technology, simulation analysis with a dynamic spatial nested logit model was conducted. From this, a significant opportunity for the Maglev Super-Express between Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka was identified, but net benefits would exceed net costs only when approximately 2-3% annual economic growth is achieved over the next 65 years in Japan. If such an economic condition is realised, the total air transport market would also continue to grow, despite strong competition from the high speed rail / Maglev system. Carbon dioxide emissions from the Maglev system are about one third of those from air transport, but the system would attract passengers from high speed rail, which is only one fifth of the emissions of air transport. To reduce emissions, electrical power would need to be generated using low carbon dioxide producing methods. For the covering abstract see ITRD E146823
Abstract