Results of a study aimed at estimating the highway needs for 2005 are presented. The study approach is based on forecasting the travel demand using socioeconomic variables and translating the growth into lane-miles of required highway facilities. The highway performance monitoring system (hpms) data set is used to obtain information on current conditions and recent trends in usage and supply (lane-miles) of urban highway systems. The lane-miles of highway facilities, stratified by highway functional class and urban location, required to meet the expected growth in travel in urban areas of different sizes are presented. Urban travel is expected to increase at an average annual rate of between 2.36 And 2.72%. To accommodate this travel growth, it is estimated that, depending on the level of service desired, between 75, 211 and 220, 284 lane-miles of additional capacity will be required by 2005. The primary highway system (freeways, expressways, and principal arterials) accounts for over 70% of these needs. Freeway and expressway needs are estimated to be between 40, 000 and 50, 000 lane-miles. The analysis performed suggests that the suburbs of large urban areas will require the most additions in capacity, particularly of primary highway types, in future years. This paper appears in transportation research record no. 1305, Finance, planning, programming, economic analysis, and land development 1991.
Abstract