The fundamentals of transport modelling were developed in the USA during the 1950s, in the context of the Detroit and Chicago Transportation Studies. These techniques were imported into the UK in the early 1960s, initially for the London conurbation, and the following 20 years saw important theoretical developments on both sides of the Atlantic. Despite the growth of some alternative "paradigms", the development of the mainstream techniques has been evolutionary rather than revolutionary. There have, nonetheless, been important changes. On the one hand, largely as a result of work done in the 1970s, a unifying framework, compatible with economic theory, has been developed, providing a justification and clarification of methods which were originally proposed on essentially practical grounds, and on the other hand, the major increase in computing power over the last decade or so has greatly expanded the scale and detail of the problems that can be analysed by modelling techniques. At the same time, there have been significant changes in emphasis. The earliest studies were predominantly concerned with the provision of capacity, to reflect the growing demands being made by the motor car. Nearly 50 years later, there are major concerns about the environmental effects of road transport, and efforts to restrain further growth, particularly by the use of pricing measures, are at the centre of most transport assessment.
Abstract