In this paper we explore how government policies in the field of transport may, in the future, affect freight rates, transit times and delivery reliability. Particular attention is given to the absorptive capacity of freight carriers, that is to say, the extent to which they are able to reduce the effects of transport policies by adapting their operations. Two policy scenarios are examined, one in which marginal social cost pricing becomes the policy within the European Union and one in which investments in infrastructure networks are viewed as insufficient to accommodate future traffic demand increases, thus giving rise to marked increases in congestion. The six modes of transport included in the analysis are these: road haulage, rail transport, inland navigation, short-distance shipping, airfreight and long-distance container shipping. The study relied on the opinions of experts and their estimations, all of which were collected by means of a Delphi survey. The prediction is that it will be notably road transport that will find it difficult to cope with the two scenarios. It is with road transport that absorptive capacity is at its lowest and this is detrimental to its competitive position in relation to other modes. However, it is also expected that the competitive position of road haulage will also weaken autonomously. (Author/publisher)
Abstract