Unpowered modes of transport are figuring more prominently in transport policy, and there is a strong commitment by central and local government to increase levels of walking and cycling, particularly in urban areas. The economic, environmental and health benefits of this approach are well recognised, but it is also clear, both to transport professionals and road users, that the safety of these modes needs to be greatly improved before any significant expansion of the activities can take place. The key to success will be low cost route treatment that minimises conflict with motor vehicles, paralleled by the development of more sympathetic traffic management strategies. This paper sets out the evaluation framework and safety predictive methods that will be required in quantitative studies of walk and cycle routes. This topic has been well researched in the UK, and it is now possible to undertake such studies with some confidence that the results will reliably inform decision makers. In order to achieve this aim, the evaluation framework takes account of the differing levels of `competence' of different groups of pedestrians and cyclists, in particular children, the elderly and those affected by drink. The variation in their interactions with traffic throughout the day is thus very important, as are the landuse activities along the route being evaluated. In this setting, the strength of the interactions with motorised traffic can be represented fully. Neglect of these factors in earlier studies led to the conclusion that the relation between traffic flow and accident risk was weak, which made it difficult to take constructive action to improve the accident picture. Analysis of the complexity of the task faced by pedestrians and cyclists, as in negotiating junctions, has also proved fruitful in reconciling the findings of conflict study methods with the accident statistics, to see, for example, why the main conflicts are between pedestrians and turning vehicles whereas their main accident involvement is with through vehicles. There is also scope for speed management strategies that can provide significant benefits for vulnerable road users. Applications of the methods to junction and route design are illustrated in the paper, both in qualitative terms that aid understanding and with quantitative results.
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