This paper examines the impact of international train services through the Channel Tunnel on commuter rail services in the Bromley area of south-east London. It considers the possible conflict between two commitments by British Rail that (1) existing rail services would not be reduced by the need to find capacity for through international services; and (2) rail services through the Tunnel would achieve a target journey time between London and Paris. Traffic forecats are crucial to this issue, because they determine when the capacity of the rail network is likely to be reached, and when the new rail link needs to come into use. The paper does not consider the rail passenger forecasts in detail, but summarises their assumptions and conclusions. It discusses possible adjustments to the planned Network South East rail services, which will be required to accommodate paths for Eurostar international trains. A major assumption in the analysis of capacity increases is that four additional Networker trains would be available for local services through Bromley; at present, such investment is uncertain, but even larger increases might be needed. Further investment will be needed to avoid serious local service congestion.
Abstract