Whilst there exists a great number of empirical studies investigating the impact of urban form on transport behaviour, the reverse direction of impacts has attracted much less attention from empirical researchers. The objective of this paper is to assess the extent to which transport impacts on residential location decisions and specifically on house prices using Oxfordshire as a case study. Literature on the influence of transport on residential location and therefore on house prices is reviewed. A Stated Preference (SP) model has been calibrated and validated by applying it to determine variations in house price in the Kidlington-Oxford-Abingdon corridor. The resultant house prices have been compared with the actual house prices. Hedonic regression (HP) has been undertaken in order to reconcile results. The model has been applied by examining the impact of a number of transport policy scenarios on the housing market and in particular on house prices. It is important to raise the issue that the two values of time coming from the two different models (SP and HP) are not the same, but the hedonic model has been finally used as it better reproduces Land Registry data. Policies examined have included the introduction of road user charging in the central city, increase/decrease in fuel duty, and the provision of the Guided Transit Express (GTE) system. It should be noted that the model developed is strategic in nature and results should be considered illustrative. In the first scenario the cost of travelling from outer Oxford to central Oxford has been increased by #1. As a result of road user charging, a decrease of 1 minute of travel time has also been considered. The increase of #1 to enter the central area has caused a decrease in house prices in the outer areas as expected. The slight increment in house prices in central Oxford is due to the reduction of travel time in those areas, as a result of reduced congestion. Scenario 2 considers an increase of 10% in fuel duty. Such an increase has brought a reduction of house prices everywhere. Similarly, scenario 3 considers a decrease of 10% in fuel duty. In this scenario, house prices increase everywhere as expected. Scenario 4 evaluates the provision of the Guided Busway (GTE) system in Oxford. The intention of the GTE is to provide fast, reliable and congestion free routes for public transport into the centre of Oxford from country towns and villages. It has been assumed that this system would reduce travel times between the different areas under study but a premium fare (10% higher than bus fare) should be paid. With the provision of the GTE, house prices go up by around 3% in the corridor affected. The increase is biggest in the outer areas best served by the system (Kidlington and Abingdon). For the covering abstract see ITRD E126595.
Abstract