One way to forecast the impact of transport policy in an urban area is to use a computer simulation model such as the Leeds integrated land use - transport (lilt) model. This model has been used to make forecasts for the city of Leeds for the period 1976 to 1991. A base forecast representing the 'most likely future' was made against which the policies were tested. Even with travel costs constant in real terms, the model predicted a continuation of the trends of rising car ownership and decentralisation. The model predicted that increasing the price of fuel would slow down the decentralisation of jobs, while increasing bus fares would accelerate the process. Making buses free would encourage the growth of jobs in the city centre, especially retail and service activity. The introduction of city centre restraint in terms of a very high parking charge would accelerate the demise of the city centre and encourage suburban development. Of the four policies designed to assist the inner city, only the one making short bus trips cheaper was estimated to accelerate the outward movement of jobs. The other three policies, namely, free parking, introducing better cross-town bus services and improving road access were all estimated to slow down the decline in the number of jobs in the inner city. All the policies had a variety of side-effects which are discussed in the report. (Author/publisher)
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