Potential new telecommunications technologies and services could have dramatic impacts on travel behaviour. The probable nature and magnitude of these impacts is uncertain. The usual assumption (or hope) is that such technologies will substitute for travel, allowing people to participate in activities at home that would have otherwise involved a trip. Telecommunications technologies may lead to other types of impacts as wen, by increasing access to information and ease of communications: modification of travel, generation of additional travel, or generation of additional communication with no change in travel. This study focuses on the implications of telecommunications for nonwork travel and explores the potential substitution of in-home versions of an activity for out-of-home versions of that activity. Three specific activities were selected, and the sets of potentially substitutable versions of those activities that are currently available were examined: movies (theatre vs. VCR vs. television), shopping (store vs. catalog vs. television), and banking (bank vs. ATM vs. phone vs. on-line.) A household survey was implemented to characterize the use of the different versions of the three case study activities and explore the trade-offs between them. The results suggest a complicated relationship between in-home and out-of-home versions of activities. The degree to which inhome versions substitute for out-of-home versions of an activity depends on the nature of the activity and the characteristics of the individuals. In addition, the travel implications are not always clear. So far, the evidence does not point to a reduction in travel. (A)
Abstract