On the authority of the netherlands agency for energy and the environment, the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research TNO has performed a study of the consequences of the future use of telecommunication on traffic and transportation. The study is directed towards two moments in the future, that is, the years 2000 and 2025, and is restricted to the dutch situation. Considering the many uncertainties involved in such long-term predictions, the scenario method has been chosen. In the study, it is reasoned out and calculated what consequences the application of telecommunication has on traffic and transportation, with regard to both the substitution of movements and the generation of new movements. Next, it is determined what the consequences are for energy and environment. In this light three scenarios have been chosen: (1) high economic growth, much use of telecommunication, (2) high economic growth, restricted application of telecommunication, (3) high economic growth, limited application of telecommunication. The results of this study logically depend on the assumptions on which the various scenarios are based. The paper is an english version of the extensive summary of B 30000 (IRRD 830652).
Abstract