This paper examines the effect of anticipated growth in heavy vehicle travel on the light passenger vehicle fleet by measuring changes in road trauma levels as measured by the number of light vehicle driver fatalities and serious injuries resulting from collisions with heavy vehicles. A model to project relevant future trends in road trauma is developed to reflect three key elements of the road trauma chain: exposure, crash risk and injury outcome given crash involvement. In addition to the specific results presented in this study, the model developed may be used to assess the likely impact of proposed policy changes on heavy vehicle related road trauma. Future heavy vehicle related road trauma trends are projected based on two scenarios of future crash risk. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of heavy vehicle related road trauma to crash risk and highlight the importance of continuing to reduce heavy vehicle crash rates to offset projected growth in heavy vehicle travel and deliver reductions in heavy vehicle related road trauma. A potential remedy to predicted increases in heavy vehicle related trauma is explored and demonstrates the application of the model as a policy evaluation tool. (Author/publisher) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E215375.
Abstract