This paper develops an integrated application of a land use model operating at a parcel level, integrated with an activity-based travel model, and applied in San Francisco, California. The paper describes the specification and estimation of the microsimulation land use model, implemented using UrbanSim and the Open Platform for Urban Simulation (OPUS). In contrast with prior operational modeling applications that have used large zones or gridcells as spatial units of analysis, this application used parcels as the unit of analysis for real estate development, and buildings as the unit for location of households and businesses. Measures of accessibility are derived from the San Francisco activity-based travel model, and the predicted locations of households and business establishments are used to update the micro-level inputs needed for the activity-based travel model. Data used in the model include business establishments linked to parcels over several years, and a panel of parcels that allow modeling of parcel development over time. This paper describes several advances that have not been previously integrated in an operational model system, including the use of parcels and buildings as units of location for consumers and developers of real estate, the use of business establishments to represent economic activity, and the interfacing of this microsimulation land use model with a microsimulation activity-based travel model. Computational performance and development effort were found to be modest, with run times averaging 20 minutes per year, and the project development and implementation requiring approximately 6 person-months over one year.
Abstract