During a period of economic reform, the People's Republic of China has emerged as an important market for multinational automobile manufacturers and a source of concern for "sustainable transport" advocates worried about the long-term sustainability of systems based on private automobiles and fossil fuels. Much of the growth in China's motor vehicle fleet and the negative consequences of that growth has been concentrated in China's large, economically dynamic coastal cities. Based on a large standardised 1995 database on urban transport, this paper compares characteristics of three of China's largest cities with cities around the world. This international comparative perspective suggests that in 1995, Chinese cities still had exceptionally high use of non-motorised and public transport modes. However, some characteristics of these cities indicated a high potential for extensive and rapid growth in private motor vehicles which could generate significant problems in the future. In particular, the relatively high population density and lack of reserved public transport routes suggested that the potential for highly concentrated negative impacts were in place, while the means of moving large numbers of people with lesser polluting modes of transport than the private motor vehicle were not in place. Finally, data on investment in public transport and freeways indicated that in the early 1990s the conditions were being created for rapid and continued motorisation. While in 1995 China's cities in some ways approximated a "sustainable transport" ideal, this is likely to have already changed substantially. (Author/publisher).
Abstract