Abstract
Interstate non-bulk freight is a substantial and fast-growing part of the Australian transport task. This paper presents estimates of the task by mode, and forecasts by mode to 2020. The main competition between modes on interstate routes is now between road and rail. Coastal shipping has been reduced to those trades that cannot or cannot easily be performed by another mode. On current trends, road looks to be the long-term winner of that contest, repeating patterns seen in most industrial countries. By 2020, road can be expected to have lifted its share of the interstate non-bulk freight task to over 70 per cent, from 57 per cent currently. However, much depends on the results of the rail reforms under way in most Australian States. (A)