The market share of light truck vehicles (LTVs) is increasing rapidly, causing a change in traffic composition in the U.S. LTVs include vans, minivans, light duty trucks, and sport-utility vehicles. Users of such vehicles appreciate the extra size, utility, and safety provided. Concerns about the effects of these LTVs on other passenger cars in collisions are increasing. This paper investigates the effect of the increased percentage of LTVs in traffic on fatalities that result from head-on collisions. It also addresses the impact of crash configuration (car-car, car/LTV, and LTV-to-LTV). Time series models that incorporate the percentage of LTVs in traffic are used to analyze and forecast the future fatality trends that result from head-on collisions. The analysis is based on the fatality analysis reporting system crash database covering the period of 1975-2000. Forecasts from the fitted time series model of head-on collisions showed that during the next 10 years, annual deaths in head-on collisions will reach 5,325 by the year 2010, which represents an increase of 8% over the year 2000 figure.
Abstract