Much research indicates that people underestimate their personal probability of encountering negative events. These findings may be interpreted either in terms of unrealistic optimism or in terms of an illusion of control. Current research has not attempted to distinguish between these two positions though it is shown that it is possible to do so. Whereas optimism refers to a generalized expectancy for positive outcomes independent of the source of the outcomes, the illusion of control locates the source of the expected outcome in terms of personal control. By examining conditions in which personal control was either present or absent it was possible to distinguish between the two positions. The results presented clear evidence in favour of the illusion of control with no evidence in favour of unrealistic optimism. (Author/publisher)
Abstract