There is a considerable literature on the relationship between sprawl and accidents. However, these studies do not account for the spatially correlated effects of sprawl on accidents. In this analysis of 122 jurisdictions in Southeast Michigan, the authors use a Bayesian spatial autoregressive model to estimate how injuries and fatalities in one jurisdiction are associated with sprawl in that jurisdiction and sprawl in neighboring jurisdictions; they also correct for heteroskedasticity in the data. Using principal component analysis, they create a sprawl index from five underlying land use characteristics. Their results show that the number of injuries and fatalities in a jurisdiction increases with the magnitude of sprawl in neighboring jurisdictions. They believe that this is because more drivers per capita in sprawled jurisdictions traverse similarly sprawled neighboring jurisdictions for daily activities. Furthermore, driving habits attuned to less defensive driving in sprawled jurisdiction are transferred to similarly designed neighboring jurisdictions, contributing to accidents in the latter. (Author/publisher)
Abstract