This study aims at collecting and synthesising knowledge and information on the characteristics of the mobility generated by so-called mega complexes. This synthesis is made applicable in the form of a practical instrument that assists decision-makers, planner and developers. Examples of mega complexes are factory outlet centres, large recreation and sport complexes, theme parks, mega cinemas and event complexes. TNO Inro and Grontmij carried out the research on behalf of Novem. The main objective of this study was to develop a practical forecasting method, which enables planners to estimate future traffic flows generated by a specific mega complex at a specific location. It should be based on the figures found in case studies and the rules of thumb developed by others on the one hand and on a qualitative judgement taking into account the specific context and location on the other. The developed forecasting methodology is transparent in that it exposes the underlying mechanisms and uncertainties. This resulted in a clear-sighted conceptual framework that can be used to evaluate new plans. The methodology is based on the so-called situational approach: the actual mobility characteristics of mega complexes are assumed to be generated by the combination of two types of characteristics: first, those related to the activities carried out in the mega complex and second, the locational aspects. Crux of the method is that an average mobility profile (= generated transport) is calculated for a specific type of mega complex based on the business carried out; this mobility profile is then adjusted on the basis of its specific location and characteristics. (A)
Abstract