Abstract
The objective is to estimate the number of deaths that will occur in traffic crashes during the Labor Day holiday period based on data available before the holiday. The estimate developed here includes all traffic deaths from crashes that occur during the holiday period. The procedure involves three steps. First, historical data are used to determine the average fraction holiday fatalities are of total deaths for the month containing the holiday. Second, total traffic deaths for September 2012 are estimated using a time series forecasting model. Third, the projected total for the month is multiplied by the fraction to obtain the holiday estimate. (Author/publisher)